Joint Attention Neural Model for Demand Prediction in Online Marketplaces
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7557/18.5170Keywords:
Online Marketplaces, Joint Multimodal ModelAbstract
As an increasing number of consumers rely on online marketplaces to purchase goods from, demand prediction becomes an important problem for suppliers to inform their pricing and inventory management decisions. Business volatility and the complexity of factors influence demand, which makes it a harder quantity to predict. In this paper, we consider the case of an online classified marketplace and propose a joint multi-modal neural model for demand prediction. The proposed neural model incorporates a number of factors including product description information (title, description, images), contextual information (geography, similar products) and historic interest to predict demand. Large-scale experiments on real-world data demonstrate superior performance over established baselines. Our experiments highlight the importance of considering, quantifying and leveraging the textual content of products and image quality for enhanced demand prediction. Finally, we quantify the impact of the different factors in predicting demand.
References
P. Bojanowski, E. Grave, A. Joulin, and T. Mikolov. Enriching word vectors with sub- word information. Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics, 5:135– 146, 2017.
N. Chapados. Effective bayesian modeling of groups of related count time series. arXivpreprint arXiv:1405.3738, 2014.
H. Cheng, R. v. Zwol, J. Azimi, E. Manavoglu, R. Zhang, Y. Zhou, and V. Navalpakkam. Multimedia features for click prediction of new ads in display advertising. In Proceedings ofthe 18th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, pages 777–785. ACM, 2012.
F. Chollet. Xception: Deep learning with depthwise separable convolutions. arXiv preprint, pages 1610–02357, 2017.
K. He, X. Zhang, S. Ren, and J. Sun. Deep residual learning for image recognition. In Proceedings of the IEEE conference on computer vision and pattern recognition, pages 770–778, 2016.
G. Ke, Q. Meng, T. Finley, T. Wang, W. Chen, W. Ma, Q. Ye, and T.-Y. Liu. Lightgbm: A highly efficient gradient boosting decision tree. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 3146–3154, 2017.
A. Krizhevsky, I. Sutskever, and G. E. Hinton. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in neural information processing systems, pages 1097–1105, 2012.
Q. Liu, F. Yu, S. Wu, and L. Wang. A convolutional click prediction model. In Proceedings of the 24th ACM International on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, pages 1743–1746. ACM, 2015.
R. Mehrotra and B. Carterette. Recommendations in a marketplace. In Proceedings of the 13th ACM Conference on Recommender Systems, pages 580–581, 2019.
L. Moreira-Matias, J. Gama, M. Ferreira, J. Mendes-Moreira, and L. Damas. Predicting taxi–passenger demand using streaming data. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 14(3):1393–1402, 2013.
Ö. Özer, O. Ozer, and R. Phillips. The Oxford handbook of pricing management. Oxford University Press, 2012.
C. Szegedy, V. Vanhoucke, S. Ioffe, J. Shlens, and Z. Wojna. Rethinking the inception architecture for computer vision. In Proceedings of the IEEE conference on computer vision and pattern recognition, pages 2818–2826, 2016.
H. Talebi and P. Milanfar. Nima: Neural image assessment. IEEE Transactions on Image Processing, 27(8):3998–4011, 2018.
Y. Zhang, H. Dai, C. Xu, J. Feng, T. Wang, J. Bian, B. Wang, and T.-Y. Liu. Sequential click prediction for sponsored search with recurrent neural networks. In AAAI, volume 14, pages 1369–1375, 2014.